Gorhammer’s Kentucky Derby Preview

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The moment all you degenerate mushes have been waiting for, the 140th running of the roses in the most cultural of American pastimes. Don’t know much about horse racing? Have no fear, the Gorhammer’s got your back. Here is my analysis, picks, and bets that I’m gonna pley:

Revised Kentucky Derby morning line:
1. Vicar’s In Trouble, 20-1
2. Harry’s Holiday, 50-1
3. Uncle Sigh, 30-1
4. Danza, 8-1
5. California Chrome, 5-2
6. Samraat, 15-1
7. We Miss Artie, 50-1
8. General a Rod, 15-1
9. Vinceremos, 30-1
10. Wildcat Red, 15-1
11. Hoppertunity, scratched
12. Dance With Fate, 20-1
13. Chitu, 20-1
14. Medal Count, 20-1
15. Tapiture, 12-1
16. Intense Holiday, 8-1
17. Commanding Curve, 50-1
18. Candy Boy, 15-1
19. Ride On Curlin, 15-1
20. Wicked Strong, 6-1
21. Pablo Del Monte, 50-1

First order of business: (5) California Chrome is the clear horse to beat. He will most likely be the heaviest Kentucky Derby favorite since Big Brown in ’08. That 5-2 morning line odds will be around 2-1 tomorrow, so don’t get too hasty with your win bets. We’ll have to get more creative with our bets to make some real cashmoney, but I’ll get to that later. A little background, California Chrome is coming off 4 straight convincing wins, blowing everyone else out of the water in all 4. His last race, the Santa Anita Derby, he beat a number of the same horses he will be running against tomorrow. Not only did he beat them, he cruised to the finish, letting up over the last few strides and still not giving up any ground. As long as he gets a clean trip, he wins the derby.

A few other horses I like: (19) Wicked Strong, the second choice at 6-1. This is the kind of horse that you bet on peaking at just the right time. Seemed like a terribly average horse until realizing his potential after he left the speed-friendly Gulfstream Park to win the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, beating strong contender Samraat and other derby contenders. But the biggest reason I like Wicked Strong is because he can come from behind, and in a 20 horse field, the winner always comes from off the pace. He’ll be challenge for California Chrome to fight off as CC will most likely be coming from slightly off the pace. (6) Samraat is a horse I like almost just as much as Wicked Strong. Samraat was undefeated until his 2nd place finish to Wicked Strong. The reason I like him so much is the high odds, 15-1 for a horse that has only lost once? Le pley. Finally, (4) Danza could be another one of those horses to peak at the right time, discovering in his last race that he likes the longer distance, winning the Arkansas Derby in his last start by 5 lengths. At 8-1, not a terrible price-to-quality.

It seems like every year there is at least one horse that comes out of the woodwork and makes a really good run for 2nd or 3rd (or 1st if you’re I’ll Have Another). My bet to be that horse this year is (12) Chitu at 20-1. He is fairly untested, winning 3 of his 4 career starts and running a close second in the other. I also like the trainer/jockey combination of Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia, the same tandem from Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom a few years back. (1) Vicar’s In Trouble is only 20-1 because he has the inside post, might as well put some money on him, close your eyes and pray for a good trip. I also like (3) Uncle Sigh as a longshot at 30-1. 5th overall prime power rating so, fuck it, why not?

Bets:

My creative pley will be putting California Chrome on top in a trifecta, packaging a number of horses for 2nd and 3rd: Vicar’s In Trouble, Danza, Samraat, Chitu (YOLO), and Wicked Strong. If you make it a 50 cent Trifecta it will cost you $10 (subtract some horses to save money if you want). I’ll probably take away some horses to make a separate exacta box.

I’ll also play California Chrome to win and throw some money on Vicar’s In Trouble, Danza, Samraat, Wicked Strong, and Uncle Sigh to show.

Good luck.

 

PS In case you don’t care about the race at all, here’s some burgahs in big hats:

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137th Kentucky Derby - Inside

 

Oh wait that’s TB12

 

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